This is a species that has been declining in the UK since at least the 1960’s. The BBS calculated a decrease in excess of 50% by 2007. The Pembrokeshire survey of 1984-88 estimated a total of 900 pairs breeding in the county, based on an average of four pairs per occupied tetrad. The 2003-07 survey found there had only been a contraction of 7% in distribution. The Pembrokeshire BAP Breeding Bird Survey of 2003 found numbers were still high in old woodland, albeit the survey scope was small. It would seem that Spotted Flycatcher numbers in the county may have decreased to a lesser degree than the 37% calculated by the BBS for the UK as a whole between 1995 and 2006. Applying the BBS value to the 2003-07 distribution for Pembrokeshire suggests that about 500 pairs were breeding during the 2003-07 survey.
Graham Rees
Fieldwork 2003-07 (based on 490 tetrads)
Red = breeding confirmed = 66
Orange = breeding probable = 107
Yellow = breeding possible = 35
Total tetrads in which registered = 208 (42.5%)